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Why Foreclosures Won’t Crush the Housing Market Next Year

Why Foreclosures Won’t Crush the Housing Market Next Year | Simplifying The Market

With the strength of the current housing market growing every day and more Americans returning to work, a faster-than-expected recovery in the housing sector is already well underway. Regardless, many are still asking the question: will we see a wave of foreclosures as a result of the current crisis? Thankfully, research shows the number of foreclosures is expected to be much lower than what this country experienced during the last recession. Here’s why.

According to Black Knight Inc., the number of those in active forbearance has been leveling-off over the past month (see graph below):Why Foreclosures Won’t Crush the Housing Market Next Year | Simplifying The MarketBlack Knight Inc. also notes, of the original 4,208,000 families granted forbearance, only 2,588,000 of these homeowners got an extension. Many homeowners have once again started to pay their mortgages, paid off their homes, or never went delinquent on their payments in the first place. They may have applied for forbearance out of precaution, but never fully acted on it (see graph below):Why Foreclosures Won’t Crush the Housing Market Next Year | Simplifying The MarketThe housing market, and homeowners, therefore, are in a much better position than many may think. Much of that has to do with the fact that today’s homeowners have more equity than most realize. According to John Burns Consulting, over 42% of homes are owned free and clear, meaning they are not tied to a mortgage. Of the remaining 58%, the average homeowner has $177,000 in equity. That number is keeping many homeowners afloat today and giving them options to avoid foreclosure.

While ATTOM Data Solutions indicates that there is a potential for the number of foreclosures to increase throughout the country, it’s important to understand why they won’t rock the housing market this time around:

“The United States faces a possible foreclosure surge over the coming months that could more than double the number of households threatened with eviction for not paying their mortgages.”

That number may sound massive, but it is actually much smaller than it seems at first glance. Today’s actual quarterly active foreclosure number is 74,860. That’s over 7.5x lower than the number of foreclosures the country saw at the peak of the housing crash in 2009. When looking at the graph below, it’s clear that even if the number of quarterly foreclosures today doubles, as ATTOM Data Solutions indicates is a possibility (not a given), they will only reach what historically-speaking is a normalized range, far below what up-ended the housing market roughly 10 years ago.Why Foreclosures Won’t Crush the Housing Market Next Year | Simplifying The MarketEquity is growing, jobs are returning, and the economy is slowly recovering, so the perfect storm for a wave of foreclosures is not realistically in the housing market forecast. As Odeta Kushi, Deputy Chief Economist for First American notes:

“Alone, economic hardship and a lack of equity are each necessary, but not sufficient to trigger a foreclosure. It is only when both conditions exist that a foreclosure becomes a likely outcome.”

While our hearts are with anyone who may end up in foreclosure as a result of this crisis, we do know that today’s homeowners have more options than they did 10 years ago. For some, it may mean selling their house and downsizing with that equity, which is a far better outcome than foreclosure.

Bottom Line

Homeowners today have many options to avoid foreclosure, and equity is surely helping to keep many afloat. Even if today’s rate of foreclosures doubles, it will still only hit a mark that is more in line with a historically normalized range, a very good sign for homeowners and the housing market.


Source: KMC

Posted in: Distressed Properties, Foreclosures, Housing Market Updates Tagged: Real Estate

© Margo Borkin Real Estate 2010

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Margo Borkin Real Estate
2 months ago
Margo Borkin Real Estate

8740 Wise Rd Commerce Twp.
4 Bedrooms
2 Baths
1682 SqFt
.61 Acres
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8740 Wise Rd Commerce Twp.
4 Bedrooms
2 Baths
1682 SqFt
.61 Acres
Stop by and see for yourself!
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Margo Borkin Real Estate
2 months ago
Margo Borkin Real Estate

Join me this Sunday from 2-4pm at 6135 Anne in West Bloomfield for an open house tour! ... See MoreSee Less

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Join me this Sunday from 2-4pm at 6135 Anne in West Bloomfield for an open house tour!
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3 months ago
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4 months ago
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Ahhh, spring is here, and with it longer days, warmer temps, and a return to outdoor living. Yesss! Spring also means it’s also time to give that home sweet home a serious once over. To help, here’s an April home maintenance checklist to get you started:⁣
⁣
Declutter, declutter, declutter. Yep, I’m beating that drum…again. You didn't think I’d have a home maintenance checklist without decluttering as numero uno, did you?⁣

Replace air filters and schedule a maintenance check of your cooling system to ensure it’s ready for the steamy months ahead.⁣

Wash windows and doors, and don’t forget your porches. Clean out corner cobwebs and spruce up your front porch or stoop with a colorful wreath, a cutesy welcome mat, and stately planters.⁣

Clean and organize your garage; while you're at it, go on and rinse out your trash cans and recycling bins.⁣

Rent or borrow a pressure washer to give your siding, sidewalk, and driveway a fresh look. Check for widening cracks and chipped paint as you go, making a note to come back and address them later.⁣

Clean and repair your gutters and downspouts to ensure they’re in prime condition for spring downpours.⁣

Test your sprinkler or irrigation system and give that lawnmower a good ole crank. (Trust me, your grass will thank you later!)⁣

Clear brush and fallen limbs away from the house and clean out your beds to make room for spring color.⁣
⁣
Join me in rolling out the welcome mat for the easy, breezy season ahead!⁣
... See MoreSee Less

Ahhh, spring is here, and with it longer days, warmer temps, and a return to outdoor living. Yesss! Spring also means it’s also time to give that home sweet home a serious once over. To help, here’s an April home maintenance checklist to get you started:⁣
⁣
Declutter, declutter, declutter. Yep, I’m beating that drum…again. You didnt think I’d have a home maintenance checklist without decluttering as numero uno, did you?⁣

Replace air filters and schedule a maintenance check of your cooling system to ensure it’s ready for the steamy months ahead.⁣

Wash windows and doors, and don’t forget your porches. Clean out corner cobwebs and spruce up your front porch or stoop with a colorful wreath, a cutesy welcome mat, and stately planters.⁣

Clean and organize your garage; while youre at it, go on and rinse out your trash cans and recycling bins.⁣

Rent or borrow a pressure washer to give your siding, sidewalk, and driveway a fresh look. Check for widening cracks and chipped paint as you go, making a note to come back and address them later.⁣

Clean and repair your gutters and downspouts to ensure they’re in prime condition for spring downpours.⁣

Test your sprinkler or irrigation system and give that lawnmower a good ole crank. (Trust me, your grass will thank you later!)⁣

Clear brush and fallen limbs away from the house and clean out your beds to make room for spring color.⁣
⁣
Join me in rolling out the welcome mat for the easy, breezy season ahead!⁣
View on Facebook
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Share on Facebook Share on Twitter Share on Linked In Share by Email
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