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How Will the Presidential Election Impact Real Estate?

How Will the Presidential Election Impact Real Estate? | Simplifying The Market

The year 2020 will be remembered as one of the most challenging times of our lives. A worldwide pandemic, a recession causing historic unemployment, and a level of social unrest perhaps never seen before have all changed the way we live. Only the real estate market seems to be unaffected, as a new forecast projects there may be more homes purchased this year than last year.

As we come to the end of this tumultuous year, we’re preparing for perhaps the most contentious presidential election of the century. Today, it’s important to look at the impact past presidential election years have had on the real estate market.

Is there a drop-off in home sales during a presidential election year?

BTIG, a research and analysis company, looked at new home sales from 1963 through 2019 in their report titled One House, Two House, Red House, Blue House. They noted that in non-presidential years, there is a -9.8% decrease in November compared to October. This is the normal seasonality of the market, with a slowdown in activity that’s usually seen in fall and winter.

However, it also revealed that in presidential election years, the typical drop increases to -15%. The report explains why:

“This may indicate that potential homebuyers may become more cautious in the face of national election uncertainty.”

Are those sales lost forever?

No. BTIG determined:

“This caution is temporary, and ultimately results in deferred sales, as the economy, jobs, interest rates and consumer confidence all have far more meaningful roles in the home purchase decision than a Presidential election result in the months that follow.”

In a separate study done by Meyers Research & Zonda, Ali Wolf, Chief Economist, agrees that those purchases are just delayed until after the election:

“History suggests that the slowdown is largely concentrated in the month of November. In fact, the year after a presidential election is the best of the four-year cycle. This suggests that demand for new housing is not lost because of election uncertainty, rather it gets pushed out to the following year.”

Will it matter who is elected?

To some degree, but not in the overall number of home sales. As mentioned above, consumer confidence plays a significant role in a family’s desire to buy a home. How may consumer confidence impact the housing market post-election? The BTIG report covered that as well:

“A change in administration might benefit trailing blue county housing dynamics. The re-election of President Trump could continue to propel red county outperformance.”

Again, overall sales should not be impacted in a significant way.

Bottom Line

If mortgage rates remain near all-time lows, the economy continues to recover, and unemployment continues to decrease, the real estate market should remain strong up to and past the election.


Source: KMC

Posted in: Demographics, For Buyers, For Sellers, Housing Market Updates, Interest Rates Tagged: Real Estate

© Margo Borkin Real Estate 2010

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Margo Borkin Real Estate
3 weeks ago
Margo Borkin Real Estate

8740 Wise Rd Commerce Twp.
4 Bedrooms
2 Baths
1682 SqFt
.61 Acres
Stop by and see for yourself!
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8740 Wise Rd Commerce Twp.
4 Bedrooms
2 Baths
1682 SqFt
.61 Acres
Stop by and see for yourself!
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Margo Borkin Real Estate
1 month ago
Margo Borkin Real Estate

Join me this Sunday from 2-4pm at 6135 Anne in West Bloomfield for an open house tour! ... See MoreSee Less

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Join me this Sunday from 2-4pm at 6135 Anne in West Bloomfield for an open house tour!
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3 months ago
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Ahhh, spring is here, and with it longer days, warmer temps, and a return to outdoor living. Yesss! Spring also means it’s also time to give that home sweet home a serious once over. To help, here’s an April home maintenance checklist to get you started:⁣
⁣
Declutter, declutter, declutter. Yep, I’m beating that drum…again. You didn't think I’d have a home maintenance checklist without decluttering as numero uno, did you?⁣

Replace air filters and schedule a maintenance check of your cooling system to ensure it’s ready for the steamy months ahead.⁣

Wash windows and doors, and don’t forget your porches. Clean out corner cobwebs and spruce up your front porch or stoop with a colorful wreath, a cutesy welcome mat, and stately planters.⁣

Clean and organize your garage; while you're at it, go on and rinse out your trash cans and recycling bins.⁣

Rent or borrow a pressure washer to give your siding, sidewalk, and driveway a fresh look. Check for widening cracks and chipped paint as you go, making a note to come back and address them later.⁣

Clean and repair your gutters and downspouts to ensure they’re in prime condition for spring downpours.⁣

Test your sprinkler or irrigation system and give that lawnmower a good ole crank. (Trust me, your grass will thank you later!)⁣

Clear brush and fallen limbs away from the house and clean out your beds to make room for spring color.⁣
⁣
Join me in rolling out the welcome mat for the easy, breezy season ahead!⁣
... See MoreSee Less

Ahhh, spring is here, and with it longer days, warmer temps, and a return to outdoor living. Yesss! Spring also means it’s also time to give that home sweet home a serious once over. To help, here’s an April home maintenance checklist to get you started:⁣
⁣
Declutter, declutter, declutter. Yep, I’m beating that drum…again. You didnt think I’d have a home maintenance checklist without decluttering as numero uno, did you?⁣

Replace air filters and schedule a maintenance check of your cooling system to ensure it’s ready for the steamy months ahead.⁣

Wash windows and doors, and don’t forget your porches. Clean out corner cobwebs and spruce up your front porch or stoop with a colorful wreath, a cutesy welcome mat, and stately planters.⁣

Clean and organize your garage; while youre at it, go on and rinse out your trash cans and recycling bins.⁣

Rent or borrow a pressure washer to give your siding, sidewalk, and driveway a fresh look. Check for widening cracks and chipped paint as you go, making a note to come back and address them later.⁣

Clean and repair your gutters and downspouts to ensure they’re in prime condition for spring downpours.⁣

Test your sprinkler or irrigation system and give that lawnmower a good ole crank. (Trust me, your grass will thank you later!)⁣

Clear brush and fallen limbs away from the house and clean out your beds to make room for spring color.⁣
⁣
Join me in rolling out the welcome mat for the easy, breezy season ahead!⁣
View on Facebook
· Share
Share on Facebook Share on Twitter Share on Linked In Share by Email
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  • Comments: 0

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