CLIENT LOG IN

Margo Borkin

Persistent Perserverance, Consistent Results

248-419-3160
Cell: 248-318-4776
Fax: 248-419-0930
margo@movewithmargo.com
  • Menu
  • Home
  • About
    • About Margo Borkin
    • Client Reviews
    • Margo Vs The Market
    • Professional Resume
  • Communities
    • Berkley
    • Beverly Hills
    • Bingham Farms
    • Birmingham
    • Bloomfield Hills
    • Bloomfield Township
    • Commerce Township
    • Farmigton
    • Farmington Hills
    • Ferndale
    • Franklin
    • Huntington Woods
    • Keego Harbor
    • Novi
    • Oak Park
    • Orchard Lake
    • Royal Oak
    • Southfield
    • Sylvan Lake
    • Walled Lake
    • Waterford
    • West Bloomfield
    • White Lake
    • Wixom
    • Wolverine Lake
  • Property Search
    • Address Search
    • Basic Search
    • Advanced Search
    • Map Search
  • Home Buyers
  • Home Sellers
  • Blog
  • Contact

3 Reasons We’re Definitely Not in a Housing Bubble

3 Reasons We’re Definitely Not in a Housing Bubble | Simplifying The Market

Home values appreciated by about ten percent in 2020, and they’re forecast to appreciate by about five percent this year. This has some voicing concern that we may be in another housing bubble like the one we experienced a little over a decade ago. Here are three reasons why this market is totally different.

1. This time, housing supply is extremely limited

The price of any market item is determined by supply and demand. If supply is high and demand is low, prices normally decrease. If supply is low and demand is high, prices naturally increase.

In real estate, supply and demand are measured in “months’ supply of inventory,” which is based on the number of current homes for sale compared to the number of buyers in the market. The normal months’ supply of inventory for the market is about 6 months. Anything above that defines a buyers’ market, indicating prices will soften. Anything below that defines a sellers’ market in which prices normally appreciate.

Between 2006 and 2008, the months’ supply of inventory increased from just over 5 months to 11 months. The months’ supply was over 7 months in twenty-seven of those thirty-six months, yet home values continued to rise.

Months’ inventory has been under 5 months for the last 3 years, under 4 for thirteen of the last fourteen months, under 3 for the last six months, and currently stands at 1.9 months – a historic low.

Remember, if supply is low and demand is high, prices naturally increase.

2. This time, housing demand is real

During the housing boom in the mid-2000s, there was what Robert Schiller, a fellow at the Yale School of Management’s International Center for Finance, called “irrational exuberance.” The definition of the term is, “unfounded market optimism that lacks a real foundation of fundamental valuation, but instead rests on psychological factors.” Without considering historic market trends, people got caught up in the frenzy and bought houses based on an unrealistic belief that housing values would continue to escalate.

The mortgage industry fed into this craziness by making mortgage money available to just about anyone, as shown in the Mortgage Credit Availability Index (MCAI) published by the Mortgage Bankers Association. The higher the index, the easier it is to get a mortgage; the lower the index, the more difficult it is to obtain one. Prior to the housing boom, the index stood just below 400. In 2006, the index hit an all-time high of over 868. Again, just about anyone could get a mortgage. Today, the index stands at 122.5, which is well below even the pre-boom level.

In the current real estate market, demand is real, not fabricated. Millennials, the largest generation in the country, have come of age to marry and have children, which are two major drivers for homeownership. The health crisis is also challenging every household to redefine the meaning of “home” and to re-evaluate whether their current home meets that new definition. This desire to own, coupled with historically low mortgage rates, makes purchasing a home today a strong, sound financial decision. Therefore, today’s demand is very real.

Remember, if supply is low and demand is high, prices naturally increase.

3. This time, households have plenty of equity

Again, during the housing boom, it wasn’t just purchasers who got caught up in the frenzy. Existing homeowners started using their homes like ATM machines. There was a wave of cash-out refinances, which enabled homeowners to leverage the equity in their homes. From 2005 through 2007, Americans pulled out $824 billion dollars in equity. That left many homeowners with little or no equity in their homes at a critical time. As prices began to drop, some homeowners found themselves in a negative equity situation where the mortgage was higher than the value of their home. Many defaulted on their payments, which led to an avalanche of foreclosures.

Today, the banks and the American people have shown they learned a valuable lesson from the housing crisis a little over a decade ago. Cash-out refinance volume over the last three years was less than a third of what it was compared to the 3 years leading up to the crash.

This conservative approach has created levels of equity never seen before. According to Census Bureau data, over 38% of owner-occupied housing units are owned ‘free and clear’ (without any mortgage). Also, ATTOM Data Solutions just released their fourth quarter 2020 U.S. Home Equity Report, which revealed:

“17.8 million residential properties in the United States were considered equity-rich, meaning that the combined estimated amount of loans secured by those properties was 50 percent or less of their estimated market value…The count of equity-rich properties in the fourth quarter of 2020 represented 30.2 percent, or about one in three, of the 59 million mortgaged homes in the United States.”

If we combine the 38% of homes that are owned free and clear with the 18.7% of all homes that have at least 50% equity (30.2% of the remaining 62% with a mortgage), we realize that 56.7% of all homes in this country have a minimum of 50% equity. That’s significantly better than the equity situation in 2008.

Bottom Line

This time, housing supply is at a historic low. Demand is real and rightly motivated. Even if there were to be a drop in prices, homeowners have enough equity to be able to weather a dip in home values. This is nothing like 2008. In fact, it’s the exact opposite.


Source: KMC

Posted in: Buying Myths, Distressed Properties, For Buyers, For Sellers, Foreclosures, Housing Market Updates, Interest Rates, Pricing, Selling Myths Tagged: Real Estate

© Margo Borkin Real Estate 2010

Post navigation

« 6 Foundational Benefits of Homeownership Today
The Luxury Market Is Attracting Buyers in 2021 »

Facebook

Comments Box SVG iconsUsed for the like, share, comment, and reaction icons
Margo Borkin Real Estate
3 weeks ago
Margo Borkin Real Estate

8740 Wise Rd Commerce Twp.
4 Bedrooms
2 Baths
1682 SqFt
.61 Acres
Stop by and see for yourself!
... See MoreSee Less

Message Page

8740 Wise Rd Commerce Twp.
4 Bedrooms
2 Baths
1682 SqFt
.61 Acres
Stop by and see for yourself!
View on Facebook
· Share
Share on Facebook Share on Twitter Share on Linked In Share by Email
View Comments
  • Likes: 0
  • Shares: 0
  • Comments: 0

Comment on Facebook

Margo Borkin Real Estate
1 month ago
Margo Borkin Real Estate

Join me this Sunday from 2-4pm at 6135 Anne in West Bloomfield for an open house tour! ... See MoreSee Less

Message Page

Join me this Sunday from 2-4pm at 6135 Anne in West Bloomfield for an open house tour!
View on Facebook
· Share
Share on Facebook Share on Twitter Share on Linked In Share by Email
View Comments
  • Likes: 9
  • Shares: 1
  • Comments: 0

Comment on Facebook

Margo Borkin Real Estate
2 months ago
Margo Borkin Real Estate

... See MoreSee Less

View on Facebook
· Share
Share on Facebook Share on Twitter Share on Linked In Share by Email
View Comments
  • Likes: 1
  • Shares: 0
  • Comments: 0

Comment on Facebook

Margo Borkin Real Estate
2 months ago
Margo Borkin Real Estate

... See MoreSee Less

View on Facebook
· Share
Share on Facebook Share on Twitter Share on Linked In Share by Email
View Comments
  • Likes: 0
  • Shares: 0
  • Comments: 0

Comment on Facebook

Margo Borkin Real Estate
3 months ago
Margo Borkin Real Estate

Ahhh, spring is here, and with it longer days, warmer temps, and a return to outdoor living. Yesss! Spring also means it’s also time to give that home sweet home a serious once over. To help, here’s an April home maintenance checklist to get you started:⁣
⁣
Declutter, declutter, declutter. Yep, I’m beating that drum…again. You didn't think I’d have a home maintenance checklist without decluttering as numero uno, did you?⁣

Replace air filters and schedule a maintenance check of your cooling system to ensure it’s ready for the steamy months ahead.⁣

Wash windows and doors, and don’t forget your porches. Clean out corner cobwebs and spruce up your front porch or stoop with a colorful wreath, a cutesy welcome mat, and stately planters.⁣

Clean and organize your garage; while you're at it, go on and rinse out your trash cans and recycling bins.⁣

Rent or borrow a pressure washer to give your siding, sidewalk, and driveway a fresh look. Check for widening cracks and chipped paint as you go, making a note to come back and address them later.⁣

Clean and repair your gutters and downspouts to ensure they’re in prime condition for spring downpours.⁣

Test your sprinkler or irrigation system and give that lawnmower a good ole crank. (Trust me, your grass will thank you later!)⁣

Clear brush and fallen limbs away from the house and clean out your beds to make room for spring color.⁣
⁣
Join me in rolling out the welcome mat for the easy, breezy season ahead!⁣
... See MoreSee Less

Ahhh, spring is here, and with it longer days, warmer temps, and a return to outdoor living. Yesss! Spring also means it’s also time to give that home sweet home a serious once over. To help, here’s an April home maintenance checklist to get you started:⁣
⁣
Declutter, declutter, declutter. Yep, I’m beating that drum…again. You didnt think I’d have a home maintenance checklist without decluttering as numero uno, did you?⁣

Replace air filters and schedule a maintenance check of your cooling system to ensure it’s ready for the steamy months ahead.⁣

Wash windows and doors, and don’t forget your porches. Clean out corner cobwebs and spruce up your front porch or stoop with a colorful wreath, a cutesy welcome mat, and stately planters.⁣

Clean and organize your garage; while youre at it, go on and rinse out your trash cans and recycling bins.⁣

Rent or borrow a pressure washer to give your siding, sidewalk, and driveway a fresh look. Check for widening cracks and chipped paint as you go, making a note to come back and address them later.⁣

Clean and repair your gutters and downspouts to ensure they’re in prime condition for spring downpours.⁣

Test your sprinkler or irrigation system and give that lawnmower a good ole crank. (Trust me, your grass will thank you later!)⁣

Clear brush and fallen limbs away from the house and clean out your beds to make room for spring color.⁣
⁣
Join me in rolling out the welcome mat for the easy, breezy season ahead!⁣
View on Facebook
· Share
Share on Facebook Share on Twitter Share on Linked In Share by Email
View Comments
  • Likes: 0
  • Shares: 0
  • Comments: 0

Comment on Facebook

Load more

Blog by Category

  • Baby Boomers (25)
  • Buying Myths (108)
  • Demographics (38)
  • Distressed Properties (15)
  • Down Payments (58)
  • First Time Home Buyers (574)
  • For Agents (1)
  • For Buyers (838)
  • For Sellers (672)
  • Foreclosures (17)
  • FSBOs (30)
  • Gen Z (6)
  • Generation X (16)
  • Holidays (3)
  • Home Decor (1)
  • Home Maintenance (2)
  • Housing Market Updates (448)
  • Infographics (183)
  • Interest Rates (145)
  • Investment (1)
  • Local Market Updates (3)
  • Luxury Market (13)
  • Millennials (75)
  • Move-Up Buyers (629)
  • New Construction (30)
  • Pricing (207)
  • Rent vs. Buy (96)
  • Selling Myths (50)
  • Senior Market (15)
  • Short Sales (1)
  • Time-sensitive (6)
  • Uncategorized (14)
  • Weekend Wanderings (1)

Recent Posts

  • Ready to Buy in 2022?
  • What you can expect from me as a buyer
  • Is your home ready to sell? Answer these quick questions to find out!
  • What do I offer for free? Glad you asked!
  • Preparing Your Home for Winter